NFL Computer Picks Today
Picks against the spread and on the total for every NFL game from our computer model, rated 1 to 5 stars. Full Access members see every pick before kickoff; everyone sees them 10 minutes after kickoff. The record is free for everyone.
NFL Computer Picks Record
| Spreads | Totals | All | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 |
| ★★★★★ and up | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 |
| ★★★★★ Top pick | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 |
| ★★★★★ Strong | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 |
| ★★★★★ Solid | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 |
| ★★★★★ Lean | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 |
| ★★★★★ Slight lean | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 |
Wins and losses at the line when the game started; pushes don't count toward the win %. ★★★★★ and up is about the top quarter of our picks.
NFL Computer Picks
How our computer picks work
Our computer picks come from a model that rates every team on offense and defense, then projects the final score of every game.
- Every score counts. Results from this season and last go into each team's ratings. Recent games count more, and ratings update after every final.
- Opponents matter. Scoring 30 against a top defense counts for more than 30 against a weak one.
- Home field. The model adds the home team's edge, worked out separately for each league.
- Projection vs. the line. The projected score is compared with the current spread and total. The side the projection favors is the pick.
- It keeps learning. Every week the model checks its own projections against the results and fine-tunes itself.
Picks lock at kickoff and are never changed afterwards. Every pick, win or lose, goes into the public record below. Computer picks are projections, not guarantees. Bet responsibly. 21+.
Star ratings. The bigger the gap between our projection and the line, the more stars:
- ★★★★★ Top pick (about the top 10% of our picks)
- ★★★★★ Strong
- ★★★★★ Solid
- ★★★★★ Lean
- ★★★★★ Slight lean
NFL Computer Picks FAQ
What are NFL computer picks?
Picks made by a model instead of a person: every NFL team is rated on offense and defense from its scores, the model projects each game's final score, and the pick is the side of the spread and total the projection favors.
How accurate are NFL computer picks?
Check the record on this page: every NFL pick we have made, graded on the line at kickoff, by star rating, for this season, the last 7 and 30 days, and all time.
What are the NFL computer picks against the spread this week?
Every NFL game this week with a spread and total is listed above with its star rating. Full Access members see the picks now; everyone sees them 10 minutes after kickoff.
Do NFL computer picks beat expert picks?
Some weeks one does better, some weeks the other. Compare our computer record here with our Expert Picks, and look for games where both agree.
How often are NFL computer picks updated?
Ratings update after every final score, and picks follow the line until kickoff, so a big line move can change a pick or its stars. At kickoff the pick locks.
Does the model account for home field in the NFL?
Yes. It measures home field from the results instead of using a fixed number, and keeps updating it through the season.
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